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The latest economic data paint a mixed picture. In both the Eurozone and the US, the signal from most confidence surveys in December is encouraging. But it is still too early to conclude to a bottoming out. The economic situation also remains vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Our 2024 growth forecasts for the OECD countries are close to those of the ECB.

2023 will be regarded as the year of yield decompression with European markets characterized by protracted price discovery processes across all asset types

The pivot in ECB monetary policy is triggering the reversal in the housing cycle.

Take-up decreased significantly in 2023 in the leading European countries. The manufacturing sector feels the effect of slower demand and new orders weakening.

Over the 12 months ending with Q3 2023, investment reached €155m, far below Q1 2021’s low point and back to 2013 levels. This compares with the high in investment of €322bn reached in Q2 2022. Overall, between Q3 2022 and Q3 2023, investment decreased by 55%.

Investment still plummeting: all asset classes experienced a strong reduction.